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The Nifty 50 index rebounded on November 27, closing above 24,250, driven by gains in auto, energy, metal, and media sectors. After a flat opening and rangebound trading, the index surged past 24,350 before some selling pressure emerged. Notable gainers included Adani Enterprises and NTPC, while Apollo Hospitals and Titan Company were among the losers. Broader indices also performed well, with the Nifty Midcap rising 0.6% and the Nifty Smallcap up 1.3%.
On November 22, the BSE Sensex surged by 1,599 points (2.1%) to reach 78,754, while the NSE Nifty rose by 478 points to 23,828, driven by a rally in financial stocks and strong US labor market data. Market breadth was positive, with 2,123 shares gaining and 1,218 declining. Key gainers included Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, and Tata Motors, while the Nifty PSU Bank index rebounded by 2.47% after a previous decline.
Bank stocks experienced a sharp decline on November 21, driven by a broad market sell-off and bribery allegations against Gautam Adani and his executives. Most banking stocks fell, with major public sector banks like State Bank of India and Bank of Baroda losing 4-8%, while private sector banks showed relatively better performance.Following the Hindenburg report in January 2023, several banks disclosed their exposure to the Adani Group, with Life Insurance Corporation reporting Rs 35,920 crore and State Bank of India revealing approximately Rs 27,000 crore in total exposure.
Nifty companies reported a 4% year-on-year profit growth in Q2, marking the second consecutive quarter of single-digit growth, driven by SBI, Hindalco, ONGC, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank. However, underperformance from BPCL, JSW Steel, and others offset gains, with consumption and asset-quality stress in BFSI sectors noted as weak spots. FY25 earnings projections have been downgraded by 7%, with a mere 5% growth expected, the weakest since FY20.
Retail loan defaults in India are rising, causing concern for the broader economy as personal loan growth slowed to 14% from over 30% last year. Lenders like Kotak Mahindra Bank and IndusInd Bank reported increased stress in unsecured loans, impacting stock prices, particularly for smaller loan-focused firms like Ujjivan Small Finance Bank. Analysts predict ongoing challenges for at least two more quarters, with high credit costs and potential prolonged stress if loan demand does not improve during the festive season.
Retail-loan defaults in India, driven by aggressive lending practices, are raising concerns about potential impacts on the broader economy. Analysts are particularly worried after Kotak Mahindra Bank and IndusInd Bank reported increased stress in unsecured loans, leading to a decline in their stock prices. Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, which specializes in smaller loans, has seen its stock plummet over 30% this year.
Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex traded lower on October 30, with the Sensex down 133.56 points at 80,235.47 and the Nifty down 28.00 points at 24,438.80, as investors took profits following a recent rally. Bank and pharma stocks contributed to the decline, while Maruti Suzuki, Wipro, and IndusInd Bank emerged as top gainers. The broader market showed mixed results, with midcap stocks falling 0.2 percent and smallcap stocks rising nearly 1 percent, amid concerns over high valuations. The India VIX increased by 3 percent, reflecting heightened market anxiety.
IndusInd Bank's core PAT estimates for FY25/26 have been trimmed by 11.7% and 8.5% due to reduced NIM and fee cuts, following a disappointing quarter with a 14% miss on core PAT. The bank's reported NIM fell QoQ by 17bps, driven by a decline in higher-yielding MFI loans and a muted loan growth of 13.2% YoY. Despite creating buffer provisions of Rs5.25bn for potential stress, the bank anticipates a recovery in MFI disbursals, leading to a revised target price of Rs1,600, down from Rs1,750, while maintaining a BUY rating.
IndusInd Bank reported a 40% YoY decline in PAT to ~INR13.3b, missing estimates due to a contingent provision of INR5.25b. NII grew 5% YoY to INR53.5b, while other income fell 10.5% QoQ. The bank's loan book expanded 13% YoY, but fresh slippages rose 17% QoQ, impacting asset quality. Motilal Oswal has cut earnings estimates for FY25/26 by 16.7%/8.7%, projecting an RoA/RoE of 1.6%/13.6% by FY26, and maintains a BUY rating with a target price of INR1,500, contingent on asset quality improvements and regulatory approvals.
IndusInd Bank, Dixon Tech, and Godrej Consumer were among the top gainers and losers in trading on October 25, as the Sensex and Nifty closed lower due to heavy foreign institutional selling and disappointing Q2 earnings. IndusInd Bank's shares fell over 18% after reporting a 40% year-on-year drop in net profit to ₹1,331 crore, attributed to a significant increase in loan loss provisions. All but the Nifty FMCG sector saw declines, reflecting a challenging market environment.
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